Nouriel Roubini: Transmission trouble for QE3

The chairman of Roubini Global Economics, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and co-author of the book Crisis Economics Nouriel Roubini shared his thoughts in Wall Street Journal that, QE3 reduces the tail risk of contraction but is unlikely to lead to a sustained recovery in the US. The US Federal Reserve’s decision to undertake a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, has raised three important questions. Will QE3 jump-start the US’s anaemic economic growth? Will it lead to a persistent increase in risky assets, especially in the US and other global equity markets? Finally, will its effects on gross domestic product (GDP) growth and equity markets be similar or different?

Many now argue that QE3’s effect on risky assets should be as powerful, if not more so, than that of QE1, QE2, and “Operation Twist”, the Fed’s earlier bond-purchase programme. After all, while the previous rounds of US monetary easing have been associated with a persistent increase in equity prices, the size and duration of QE3 are more substantial. But, despite the Fed’s impressive commitment to aggressive monetary easing, its effects on the real economy and on US equities could well be smaller and more fleeting than those of previous QE rounds.

Consider, first, that the previous QE rounds came at times of much lower equity valuations and earnings. In March 2009, the S&P 500 index was down to 660, earnings per share (EPS) of US companies and banks had sunk to a financial-crisis low, and price/earnings ratios were in the single digits. Today, the S&P 500 is more than 100% higher (hovering near 1,430), the average EPS is close to $100, and P/E ratios are above 14. Even during QE2, in the summer of 2010, the S&P 500, P/E ratios, and EPS were much lower than they are today. If, as is likely, economic growth in the US remains anaemic in spite of QE3, top-line revenues and bottom-line earnings will turn south, with negative effects on equity valuations. Moreover, fiscal support is absent this time: QE1 and QE2 helped to prevent a deeper recession and avoid a double dip, respectively, because each was associated with a significant fiscal stimulus.

Even if the US avoids the full fiscal cliff of 4.5% of GDP that is looming at the end of the year, it is highly likely that a fiscal drag amounting to 1.5% of GDP will hit the economy in 2013. With the US economy currently growing at a 1.6% annual rate, a fiscal drag of even 1% implies near-stagnation in 2013, though a modest recovery in housing and manufacturing, together with QE3, should keep US growth at about its current level in 2013.

Nouriel Roubini about the world economy (part 2)

The world famous economist Nouriel Roubini shares his thoughts and views about the global economy and processes during the 2012 Pilosio Award.

Nouriel Roubini about the world economy (part 1)

The world famous economist Nouriel Roubini shares his view about the global economy during the 2012 Pilosio's International "Building The Peace" Award.

“Dr.Doom” is convinced that the euro zone will fail

It’s no coincidence that famous economics Nouriel Roubini is called "Dr. Doom" given his bold predictions for the future of economy. Moreover, almost every single economic forecast which he has made has proved to be accurate afterwards, so when Roubini predicts, his surroundings tend to listen. Even given aside the fact that Dr.Doom was prepared for and bet on QE3, he has predicted a "perfect storm" for the economy in 2013. Moreover, he was right about the debt crisis in Europe, the U.S. growth, the Chinese slowdown, and the military conflict in Iran, which all combined would lead, according to Roubini, lead to recession.

As far as Roubini is concerned, the national bloc is about to fail. He himself is of the opinion that quantitative easing is delaying the inevitable and that the massive debt crisis will soon affect the euro zone. Even though there have been multiple packaged which help countries like Spain, Greece and Italy, the euro crisis seems impossible to solve.

Roubini still thinks that the economics and markets, which are propped up by purchasing assets, will supper a contraction somewhere in the future. Given the fact that the investment guru Nouriel Roubini has been accurate for so many past predictions, the investors should be wary of the European nations which have earned failing grades.

Roubini: If Jobs Number Is Weak, the third round of quantitative easing on Its Way

American economist Nouriel Roubini expressed his pessimistic view about U.S. and explained that he expects a further round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve in December. The founder of Roubini Global Economics shared his point of view in an interview for CNBC and added that if today’s jobs number is ok then the Fed can wait to do QE3.

"Yet the economy is weak enough and the unemployment rate weak enough that the Fed is going to do QE3 eventually.", said Roubini.

As he accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination to seek a second term as President, Barak Obama asked for more time to help solve the U.S.’s economic problems. He insisted that the problems of slowing growth are solvable and it is just a matter of time things to go back to normal.

"By the fourth quarter, with the fiscal cliff coming and firms becoming more cautious, capital spending is slowing down and growth will be not even 2 percent," warned Roubini. "Job creation might be around 100,000 or slightly higher for the next few months, but there’s not going to be any significant reduction in the unemployment rate."

He argued that with gross domestic product (GDP) growth of around 1 percent to 2 percent, the fiscal drag may weigh down the economy and predicted growth of close to 2 percent for the third quarter. Roubini believes that it will then slow in the last three months of 2012.

"If you get the fiscal drag as growth slows, you’re close to zero growth next year", he said. "This implies that by December the Fed is going to do a third round of QE3."

Fiscal austerity should be much more gradual to prevent a disorderly outcome in the eurozone, believes Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, the famous American economist believe, that the ability to backstop, ring-fence, and bail out banks and other financial institutions is constrained by politics and near-insolvent sovereigns’ inability to absorb additional losses from their banking systems. As a result, sovereign risk is now becoming banking risk, because sovereigns are dumping a larger fraction of their public debt onto banks’ balance sheet, especially in the eurozone.

Nouriel Roubini believes that in order to prevent a disorderly outcome in the eurozone, today’s fiscal austerity should be much more gradual, a growth compact should complement the EU’s new fiscal compact, and a fiscal union with debt mutualization - Eurobonds, should be implemented.

Military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession, warns Nouriel Roubini

The Chairman of Roubini Global Economics - Nouriel Roubini believes that the long-simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other on the issue of nuclear proliferation could reach a boil by 2013. Roubini, who is a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, thinks, that the current negotiations are likely to fail, and even tightened sanctions may not stop Iran from trying to build nuclear weapons. With the US and Israel unwilling to accept containment of a nuclear Iran by deterrence, a military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession.

Nouriel Roubini predicts a Perfect Storm on a global scale

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, predicts dark times for the global economy in 2013 in his recent analysis of the events that occur around the world. The Chairman of Roubini Global Economics foresees dark financial and economic clouds, which are rolling in from every direction: the eurozone, the United States, China, and elsewhere. He believes that the global economy in 2013 could be a very difficult environment in which to find shelter.

In his opinion, the Eurozone crisis is worsening, as the euro remains too strong, front-loaded fiscal austerity deepens recession in many member countries, and a credit crunch in the periphery. To add to that, the high oil prices undermine prospects of recovery. Roubini believes that the eurozone banking system is becoming balkanized, as cross-border and interbank credit lines are cut off. Capital flight could turn into a full run on periphery banks if, as is likely, Greece stages a disorderly euro exit in the next few months.

Pulling the plug on funding Greece will lead to the collapse of the Euro, warns Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, an American economist, shared his point of view about the Greek crisis and the Euroepan single currency. According to him, pulling the plug on funding Greece, which has already been bailed out twice, would lead to the collapse of the Euro, Roubini warned. Roubini's opinion is that the euro zone had two choices.

The first one is providing funding to facilitate an orderly exit by Greece. And the other path is to keep the Balkan country in the single currency by financing it in the same manner as West Germany supported the East after unification back in 1990. Nouriel Roubini believes that the second option would be cheaper in the long term for the European taxpayer than allowing the euro zone to break up.

Nouriel Roubini: Europe needs growth

American economist Nouriel Roubini believes that Europe needs to boost growth instead of push for austerity. Roubini, who is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics an economic consultancy firm, explained that governments in Europe should lower taxes and increase salaries to boost growth rather than insisting on austerity and continued saving. The famous economist Nouriel Roubini gave his opinion in an interview to a German newspaper.

According to Roubini, the German government should give its citizens incentives to go on holiday in countries in the south of Europe that were affected by the debt crisis to help those states recover. Germany is one of the strongest economies in the EU.